Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 12.728478 14.564546 16.541634 18.825091 21.385790 24.164824 27.405070
2025-06-01 9.960260 12.435118 15.306563 18.869042 23.153767 28.123794 34.306680
2025-06-08 8.409751 11.110791 14.398928 18.668084 24.032828 30.516729 38.908326
2025-06-15 7.372292 10.245590 13.895927 18.828572 25.268077 33.331589 44.126219
2025-06-22 6.729310 9.766956 13.769189 19.363249 26.903526 36.627653 50.013553
2025-06-29 5.943240 8.993204 13.153873 19.158656 27.499608 38.556158 54.175132
2025-07-06 5.066516 7.987981 12.111557 18.251165 27.030635 38.979416 56.280273
2025-07-13 4.725018 7.715825 12.061531 18.704527 28.438194 41.980272 61.993514
2025-07-20 4.399329 7.429331 11.955289 19.048399 29.682619 44.785215 67.534071
2025-07-27 4.012795 7.007319 11.604646 18.989006 30.311741 46.718438 71.893545
2025-08-03 3.634033 6.558762 11.171384 18.760195 30.653092 48.223251 75.667587
2025-08-10 3.351017 6.239066 10.910378 18.769843 31.339029 50.244006 80.260914
2025-08-17 3.125421 6.001868 10.772303 18.977629 32.363141 52.850935 85.902923
2025-08-24 2.878125 5.703491 10.509395 18.961420 33.026380 54.932607 90.836044
2025-08-31 2.629223 5.376084 10.167387 18.780580 33.396532 56.552213 95.092513
2025-09-07 2.460333 5.178952 10.032296 18.934505 34.313037 59.057646 100.821801
2025-09-14 2.365626 5.112609 10.120593 19.474533 35.894147 62.682354 108.461367
2025-09-21 2.170542 4.832110 9.799796 19.267962 36.186032 64.213468 112.771251
2025-09-28 1.900301 4.374106 9.114697 18.356152 35.198132 63.576046 113.489187
2025-10-05 1.828204 4.315073 9.175694 18.811725 36.631654 67.035436 121.110000
2025-10-12 1.747593 4.230231 9.179541 19.157394 37.879945 70.222453 128.381231
2025-10-19 1.627227 4.047970 8.977991 19.097683 38.384362 72.145001 133.568063
2025-10-26 1.498929 3.835288 8.698853 18.867709 38.557690 73.489853 137.800622